OT: Re: katrina ...

[Alan Jackson]

On Sun, 04 Sep 2005 18:11:05 -0500
Michael Hipp <Michael at Hipp.com> wrote:

> Alan Jackson wrote:
> > Let me share some hard facts.
> > 
> > The world is running out of oil. Exploration discovery rates peaked back 
> > in the 1960's and have fallen ever since.
> > 
> > Production is estimated to peak sometime between now and 2010.
> 
> Can this truly be established as fact?
> 
> I keep reading such, but most of those saying it are writing opinion pieces 
> and likely have a barely-hidden agenda to go with it.
> 
> Not particularly disagreeing with you, just wondering how/whom/where this has 
> become an established fact. If this is indeed a fact we are all looking at 
> some serious lifestyle changes. (So be it, but I'd like to get an early start.)

Look at Scientific American a few years ago - cover article. The basis is King Hubbert's
work back in the 1960's. He showed how to predict the turn. The only argument is when
it happens. From my reading, most people I trust think it's about now.
And it could be worse that we think - I suspect that OPEC countries have
been systematically overstating their reserves to get a higher quota,
which would put us even closer to the tipping point. Hubbert was a geologist 
working at the Shell research lab in Houston, BTW.


> 
> > Currently most exploration of significance is in deepwater Gulf of Mexico,
> > West Africa, and Borneo.
> 
> But isn't most of this (as regards the developed nations, anyway) more due to 
> stifling environmental regs and an unfriendly political environment rather 
> than there just being nowhere to find oil?

Nope. Big oil is found in fairly exclusive geologic provinces, and those
are running out. It is very helpful to have a really big river system
dumping lots of sediment rapidly (Mississippi, Niger, Congo, Mackenzie, Amazon)
But that isn't enough. The Ganges, Yellow river and Amazon look to be not very 
prospective, even though there is a big delta. There are also exceptions
(Prudhoe), but they are pretty uncommon.

Now, natural gas has a wider scope, but that has it's own problems.

> 
> > There are basically two ways to distibute goods to people. Either you have
> > a free market, and he who is willing and able to pay the most gets some
> > of whatever it is, or you have the government take control and ration 
> > whatever it may be. I'm no huge fan of laissez-faire economics. I think
> > that the market can be stupid and cruel, and needs regulating. On the 
> > other hand, it is terribly efficient at matching supply and demand, much
> > more so than any government could be.
> 
> All true, but you fail to note that government is also stupid and cruel and 
> needs regulating. So here's how it stacks up:
> 
> Free market: Efficient at resource allocation, but stupid and cruel.
> Government: Inefficient at resource allocation, while being stupid and cruel.

No argument here...

> 
> > I have advocated a carbon tax for 
> > years - something like 50 cents/gallon on gasoline equivalent, to try to
> > prepare people for the inevitable shortages and smooth out the disruptions.
> > Markets rarely drive intelligent long-term behavior. They are usually very
> > short-sighted. It may be too late now.
> 
> I could perhaps agree if the collected funds went toward projects that moved 
> us toward real energy solutions and could be kept out of the hands of the 
> various enviro-socialist political groups and their paid-for politicians.
> 
> Thanks for the info.
> 
> Michael
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-- 
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| Alan K. Jackson            | To see a World in a Grain of Sand      |
| alan at ajackson.org          | And a Heaven in a Wild Flower,         |
| www.ajackson.org           | Hold Infinity in the palm of your hand |
| Houston, Texas             | And Eternity in an hour. - Blake       |
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