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[Gerry Doris]

On Thu, 9 May 2002, Jay Nugent wrote:
>    So you're saying that a "Good" company that is in control of the future
> must therefore own a "Crystal Ball"!  By these standards, Caldera would be
> JUST AS GUILTY of not managing their business if they had revenue of $21
> Million - again missing their "Prediction" by 17%.  Horse pucky!  It's not 
> that cut and dried.

No, I'm saying that shareholders generally expect the management of a 
company to meet their predictions at least for the next 3 months.  If they 
don't then their stock will suffer.  Some companies are known for being 
conservative.  IBM is a case in point but look what happened to them a few 
weeks back when they finally missed by coming in too low.  If Caldera had 
made $21M they wouldn't be facing the problems they have today.

> 
>    No company knows for sure what will happen in the retail market in the
> next 3 or 4 months.  These are just predictions.  And if these
> 'predictions' were anything more than the FUD which they are, every
> company would consistantly guess LOW and NEVER fall short of their
> prediction and the stock market would always consider them as a good buy!

Companies aren't doing this on their own.  They have to regularly meet 
with the analysts and try and convince them everything is rosy.  The 
analysts have their own idea of what should occur and they are pretty hard 
to fool.  Missing expectations is not a "good" thing.  Also, except for 
very unusual circumstances (9/11 comes to mind) most well run companies 
have a pretty good idea of what will happen in the next 3 months...so do 
the analysts.


>    Unbelivable that anyone would rate a company's health purely on their
> ability to make a GUESS at the future, rather than a companies ability to
> adjust to what the future brings.  There is ALOT more to it than that
> quarterly prediction.  My own stock portfolio continues to gain around
> 17-20%/year despite the technology crash.  I think I will stick with my
> own method of rating a stocks ability to grow... it seems to be working
> quite well for me :-)

Companies that adjust to what the future brings are well managed and will
meet their predictions as well as the analysts' expectations by defintion.  
If you're making 17-20% these days then you are certainly doing well and 
most defintely should not change your approach.  In fact, you might 
consider changing careers and becoming a professional money manager.  You 
could make significant $$$ with your abilities.

Gerry
-- 

"The lyfe so short, the craft so long to learne"  Chaucer